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- Hakeem Belo-Osagie
The global oil markets have undergone numerous oil price cycles since the 1960s. The energy transition will alter how these cycles come about—and how long they last. Historically, demand pressures were the prime catalyst of long-lasting cycles of deficit and rising prices. But this situation is changing as supply-side dynamics become the prime catalyst, which could shorten both cycles of surplus and deficit. Weakening oil demand, hurdles to investment, and highly reactive barrels explain this shift. The result is shorter price cycles. Will peak oil demand in OECD countries and regulations to restrict oil/gas investments create more price volatility? What should large energy importers do to adapt to shorter price cycles and periods of greater volatility? Why are we seeing such significant price volatility in gas prices? What is the role of shale oil as the most reactive part of the oil industry to dampen price cycles, especially as the energy transition accelerates? How will oil market management of OPEC+ evolve as the global energy mix changes to new energy sources such as renewables, hydrogen, and carbon capture?